Vol. 9, Issue 5, Part G (2024)

Background: Haemonchosis, caused by Haemonchus contortus, poses a significant threat to small ruminant production in tropical regions, often leading to outbreaks in young adult goats during the rainy season. This study aimed to predict the prognosis of haemonchosis cases using hematological parameters and assess the time required for apparent recovery following therapeutic intervention in natural cases of acute haemonchosis.

Methods: A total of 32 haemonchosis cases were confirmed through various diagnostic criteria, including the FAMACHA score, fecal egg count, and coproculture. A mortality rate of 53.13% was observed among the affected animals. All infected animals received a single treatment with a combination of albendazole and ivermectin, and they were monitored for 60 days.

Results: After 28 days of therapy, the treated animals showed apparent clinical improvement, as evidenced by an increase in the hematocrit (HCT) value up to 18% and an improved FAMACHA score. Using standardized canonical discriminant function analysis, it was determined that among the various parameters, HCT had the highest structure matrix value (0.999 at the 1% level), making it a reliable predictor. The calculated HCT cut-off value for survival was 9.045%, while the discriminant cut-off value was 0.037. These values effectively classified 81.2% of the animals into their respective survival and death groups. Additionally, the prediction displayed favorable scores for positive predictive value (85%), sensitivity (73%), specificity (88%), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.796).

Conclusion: In conclusion, haemonchosis-affected goats with an HCT value of 9.045% or higher have an 81.2% chance of survival. This study provides valuable insights into prognosis forecasting and the assessment of therapeutic interventions in cases of acute haemonchosis in goats.